A two-speed week. Base metals sold off early and then rallied hard into Friday as the dollar softened and China hinted at more infrastructure spending, while the ferrous complex refused to break out in either direction — held down by a swollen mill inventory overhang. Behind both, the real story remained logistics: Gulf tanker economics detached from anything resembling normal, and container carriers kept capacity tight enough to hold box rates near their August levels. Here is the week in one view, then group by group, with links through to the relevant product catalogue pages.
Week at a glance
| Group | Net move | The week’s read | Catalogue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steel & iron ore | Range-bound | Iron ore closed Friday near US$95/t, still inside its US$93–100 summer band; Chinese steel futures firmer but mill stocks high | Steel Products |
| Copper | Late rebound | Recovered mid-week losses to close around US$6.58/lb on a weaker dollar and China stimulus hopes | Non-Ferrous |
| Aluminium & zinc | Firmer | Aluminium back toward US$3,250/t on Friday as alumina outages and force majeures tightened the supply picture | Non-Ferrous |
| Industrial minerals | Stable | Barite, gypsum, aggregates and clinker steady on Gulf project demand; landed cost still set by freight | Minerals |
| Petrochemicals | Tight | Methanol at multi-year highs on Middle East supply loss; urea structurally elevated with Hormuz flows constrained | Petrochemicals |
| Polymers (PE/PP) | Two-tier | Asian export offers broadly flat week-on-week; Chinese PP futures sharply lower on the day Friday | Polymers |
| Freight & tankers | Extreme (tankers) | MEG–China VLCC earnings above US$520,000/day; Asia–Europe box rates eased 1–2% | Logistics |
Biggest movers of the week
Steel & iron ore
The ferrous complex spent the week going sideways. Iron ore settled at roughly US$95/t on Friday, barely changed on the day and still inside the US$93–100 band it has occupied since June, with the most-active Dalian contract closing around RMB 707.5/t. Chinese steel futures were a touch firmer — rebar around CNY 3,060/t, up just under 1% on Friday — but the underlying picture stayed heavy: finished steel inventories at key CISA mills were reported at 17.18 million tonnes, some 14% above the same point last year, and margins remain compressed by the property downturn. Export offers out of Turkey and the CIS held their recent ranges rather than extending August’s gains.
For buyers, a range-bound market with visible inventory is a scheduling opportunity rather than a pricing one: lock delivery windows and mill slots now, and phase the tonnage. Certified rebar, sections, plate and coil are listed on our Steel Products page, with billet and slab on Semi-Finished Steel, both part of the Industrial Products & Commodities sector.
Copper & non-ferrous
Copper wrote the week’s clearest story: down early on demand doubts, then up sharply on Friday as a weaker dollar and renewed expectations of Chinese infrastructure stimulus overpowered the bearish tape. The global benchmark firmed to about US$6.58/lb, with the physical case still resting on constrained mine supply from Chile and Peru rather than on any surge in Chinese consumption. Aluminium rose almost 2% on Friday to roughly US$3,249/t, leaving it modestly higher over the month; the supply side did the work, with Alunorte — the largest alumina refinery outside China — running at reduced capacity on gas shortages and Norsk Hydro declaring force majeure on sales, partly offset by Emirates Global Aluminium’s plan to restart Al Taweelah. Zinc was quiet by comparison, tracking the wider base-metals bid without a story of its own.
Practical read for cathode, ingot, billet and coil buyers: premiums and spreads are being set by availability, not by the exchange price. Multi-origin cover is worth more than a good print. Specifications are on our Non-Ferrous Metals page, and our quality assurance team can pre-qualify alternate mills before you need them.
Industrial minerals
Another steady week. Barite, gypsum, aggregates and cement clinker held their ranges, supported by Gulf infrastructure programmes and regional drilling activity. With FOB levels stable, the variable that actually moved landed cost was shipping — which, given this week’s tanker and box-rate picture, argues for fixing freight and material together rather than sequentially. Grades and typical specifications are on the Industrial Minerals page, and the broader capability sits in our Mining & Minerals sector.
Petrochemicals
The tightest complex of the week. Methanol futures pushed to their highest levels since October 2021 — around CNY 3,370/t in China — on continued Middle East supply loss, with Iran historically supplying a large share of China’s imported tonnes. Urea remains structurally elevated well above the US$350–450/t band that prevailed into March, reflecting the fact that roughly a third of seaborne fertiliser trade and about 40% of global urea exports normally move through the Strait of Hormuz. Bitumen and base oils stayed firm on the same logic: refinery allocation and export logistics, not demand, are setting the price.
Contract buyers should assume availability risk rather than price risk for the rest of Q3, and build in alternate-origin clauses. Urea, sulphur, bitumen grades, base oils and methanol are all quoted through our Petrochemicals & Chemicals desk.
Plastics & polymers
A two-tier market. Asian export offers were broadly unchanged week-on-week — recent South Asia assessments had HDPE film and blow moulding grades around US$1,280/t, HDPE injection near US$1,270/t, PP film about US$1,265/t and LLDPE around US$1,255/t, with most grades flat and PP film the only real riser. Chinese domestic PP futures, meanwhile, fell sharply into Friday’s close to roughly CNY 8,060/t, a reminder that the onshore paper market and the export offer sheet are no longer telling the same story. PVC continues to carry the largest geopolitical premium of the polymer complex given feedstock exposure to Gulf flows.
Converters running thin stocks should treat flat export offers as a window, not a trend. Our sourcing desk quotes multiple origins across HDPE, LDPE, LLDPE, PP, PVC and PET on the Plastics & Polymers page.
Freight & logistics
Two very different markets. In tankers, Gulf economics remain historic: TD3C Middle East Gulf–China earnings above US$520,000 per day, ship-to-ship transfer activity building off Oman and Fujairah, and Hormuz transits down to 73 in the week to 16 August from 91 a week earlier as owners weigh war-risk exposure. In containers, Drewry’s latest assessment showed Asia–Europe spot rates easing — Shanghai–Genoa down 2% to about US$4,955 per 40ft and Shanghai–Rotterdam down 1% to about US$4,401 — while transpacific demand held up against managed capacity, with seven blank sailings announced for the coming week and August capacity to the US East Coast down 9% month-on-month. Several carriers have also flagged Panama Canal surcharges on Asia–USEC and Asia–Gulf Coast trades from September.
Budget landed cost, not FOB. Our supply chain and logistics team structures shipments around these constraints as a matter of course.
The week ahead
Three things to watch. First, whether China converts stimulus signalling into actual infrastructure orders — that is the swing factor for both copper and ferrous. Second, alumina: any further outage compounds an already tight aluminium curve. Third, Hormuz — every petrochemical, polymer and freight line in this wrap ultimately traces back to it, and September allocations will be set on whatever the picture looks like in the next fortnight. With availability rather than price setting outcomes, staggered multi-origin cover remains the sensible posture. Arian Holding’s global sourcing desk can structure that across every group above — request a quote and we will respond with current, firm pricing against your specifications.
Sources: Trading Economics (iron ore, steel, aluminium, polypropylene); Hellenic Shipping News / MMI and SteelRadar (iron ore, mill inventories); Rio Times (copper and mining equities); Discovery Alert (LME aluminium, alumina outages); Metalshub (urea and Hormuz trade shares); Plastic4trade (South Asia polymer offers); Lloyd’s List Intelligence (tanker earnings and Hormuz transits); Drewry World Container Index (container spot rates and blank sailings). Figures are indicative market levels for the week of August 17–22, 2026, compiled from published third-party assessments, and are provided for general information only — not as trading, investment or procurement advice.