Outlook in brief
Aluminium enters the third quarter of 2026 structurally tight: exchange stocks sit near multi-year lows and alumina feedstock has been disrupted, keeping a firm floor under prices even as new capacity looms. Zinc looks softer, with fresh mine supply pointing to a global surplus and a likely drift lower in the second half. Our base case is a firm, range-bound aluminium market and a gently easing zinc market — a picture that rewards forward cover on aluminium and patience on zinc. See specifications across our Non-Ferrous Metals catalogue.
Non-ferrous metals have been the most resilient corner of the industrial complex through 2026, and the two workhorses Arian Holding trades most — aluminium and zinc — are now pulling in opposite directions. Below we set out the key drivers for the quarter ahead, the risks that could reprice the market either way, and scenario ranges to help you plan procurement across our Industrial Products & Commodities sector.
Driver 1 — Aluminium supply is genuinely tight
Visible aluminium in LME-registered warehouses has fallen to its lowest level since 2022, sliding from roughly 318,000 tonnes in early June to the low-280,000-tonne range by mid-July, according to LME data reported by Kedia Advisory. Thin visible stock leaves the market exposed to any fresh disruption and is the single biggest reason prices have held firm despite a cautious macro backdrop. For buyers of ingots, billets, cathodes and wire rod, low inventory means less cushion and a stronger case for locking forward tonnage rather than buying spot into a squeeze — the kind of programme our global sourcing desk structures routinely.
Driver 2 — Alumina feedstock wobbles
Upstream, the alumina picture is mixed. Alcoa trimmed its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes after Cyclone Narelle and contamination issues at its Pinjarra refinery in Australia, while the LME Platts alumina benchmark held around US$330/t in early July. Offsetting that, Emirates Global Aluminium restarted its Al Taweelah refinery after roughly three and a half months offline, targeting a return to full technical capacity by year-end. The net read: feedstock is adequate but fragile, and any further refinery outage would feed quickly into metal costs.
"Aluminium's problem is not demand — it is how little metal is left on the exchange to absorb the next shock."
Driver 3 — Policy and tariffs redraw trade flows
Two policy forces are reshaping where metal moves. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is phasing in through 2026 and could raise the landed cost of imported primary aluminium substantially, while a 50% US import tariff has already redirected trade and helped non-US regional premiums firm. China's smelter capacity remains capped near 45 million tonnes a year, yet its unwrought aluminium and product exports still rose about 10.4% in the first five months of 2026. For GCC and Asian buyers, these shifts make supplier diversification and documented origin more valuable than ever — areas covered by our quality assurance and supply chain & logistics capabilities.
Driver 4 — Zinc heads the other way
Zinc's story is one of returning supply. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group projects a global zinc surplus of around 271,000 tonnes in 2026, with expansion projects such as Rosh Pinah, Vedanta's Gamsberg and Algeria's Tala Hamza adding concentrate through mid-year. Analysts broadly expect a correction toward US$3,300–3,500/t in the second half from higher first-half levels. That argues for patience: galvanisers and alloy buyers can likely replenish on dips rather than chasing the market. Zinc feeds directly into demand for coated steel products, so a softer zinc floor is modestly supportive for downstream construction budgets.
Scenario ranges for the quarter
The table below frames base, bull and bear cases for the two metals over the coming weeks. These are directional planning ranges, not forecasts or trading advice.
| Metal | Bear case | Base case | Bull case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminium (LME) Non-Ferrous |
Softer — Indonesian & new capacity lands early, stocks rebuild toward ~US$2,700–2,800/t | Firm, range-bound — low stocks keep metal near recent US$3,100–3,500/t levels | Higher — a fresh alumina outage or stock draw pushes metal toward US$3,600/t+ |
| Zinc (LME) Non-Ferrous |
Weaker — surplus builds faster, prices ease below US$3,300/t | Gently easing — drift toward US$3,300–3,500/t as mine supply returns | Steady — Asian/European smelter demand absorbs new supply, holding ~US$3,500/t |
What this means for buyers
Our read for the quarter: treat aluminium and zinc differently. On aluminium, the balance of risk favours securing forward cover now — visible stocks are thin, feedstock is fragile and tariff shifts are lifting regional premiums, so waiting carries more upside risk than downside reward. On zinc, returning mine supply and a projected surplus argue for staged, opportunistic buying on dips. Across both, documented origin, certified specifications and reliable logistics matter more in a policy-fragmented market than shaving a few dollars on spot.
Working with Arian Holding
Arian Holding's trade desk structures compliant, multi-grade non-ferrous supply — ingots, billets, cathodes, slab and wire rod — backed by lab certification and end-to-end logistics. Whether you are hedging a firm aluminium requirement or timing zinc replenishment, request a quote and our team will respond with current, firm pricing for your specifications.
Sources: London Metal Exchange & Kedia Advisory via Investing.com (aluminium stocks); Discovery Alert and Hanchen Metal (aluminium prices & alumina); Alcoa and Emirates Global Aluminium company updates; Morgan Stanley Research (base-metals outlook); International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG); Fastmarkets and Investing News Network (zinc outlook). Figures are indicative market levels around late July 2026 and are provided for general information, not as trading or investment advice.