The second week of July brought the first real rotation in weeks. Chinese steel steadied and even bounced as property-transaction data improved, urea reversed sharply higher after one of the year's deepest corrections, and base metals held their recent ranges — while iron ore ground to fresh lows on record port stocks and ocean freight extended its climb, albeit at a gentler pace than the prior week's spike. Overlaying it all, the EU's new steel safeguard took effect on 1 July, resetting the trade map for finished long and flat products. Below is the net move for each group, the week's biggest movers, and what to watch ahead. For grades, specifications and quotations, each section links through to the relevant product catalogue page.
Week at a glance
| Group | Net move | The week in one line | Catalogue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steel (rebar) | Firmer | Shanghai rebar futures rebounded above CNY 3,080/t from multi-month lows as top-10-city home sales rose 19.2% year-on-year | Steel Products |
| Iron ore | Softer | CNY contract near CNY 745/t and USD grade around US$98–99/t — a roughly 4.5-month low and an eighth straight weekly loss on record ~160Mt port stocks | Raw Materials |
| Copper | Steady | LME three-month held near US$13,480/t, essentially flat on the week below early-summer peaks | Non-Ferrous |
| Aluminium & zinc | Softer | Aluminium eased toward US$3,140/t (about −1.9%); zinc held a narrow, resilient range | Non-Ferrous |
| Industrial minerals | Steady | Barite, gypsum and aggregates tracking firm GCC construction and infrastructure demand | Minerals |
| Petrochemicals | Mixed-up | Urea reversed higher toward US$416/t (+4.8% m/m); bitumen firmed off its lows near CNY 3,800/t; methanol soft-to-steady | Petrochemicals |
| Polymers (PE/PP/PVC) | Mixed | PP held conflict-driven gains in China; PE and PVC saw post-war corrections; Hormuz feedstock risk kept a floor under offers | Polymers |
| Ocean freight | Higher | Drewry's World Container Index rose 2% to about US$4,639/40ft on 9 July — up ~61% year-on-year — after the prior week's 9% jump | Logistics |
The week's biggest movers
Steel & iron ore
Ferrous split in two this week. Rebar futures in Shanghai climbed back above CNY 3,080 per tonne, rebounding from multi-month lows as demand signals improved — transactions of newly built commercial homes across ten major Chinese cities rose about 19.2% year-on-year in the week ended 5 July, lifting the near-term consumption outlook. Iron ore, by contrast, kept grinding lower: the CNY contract sat near CNY 745 per tonne and the USD benchmark around US$98–99 per tonne — a roughly four-and-a-half-month low and an eighth consecutive weekly decline — as port inventories in China swelled to a record near 160 million tonnes. The bigger structural story was policy: the EU's new steel safeguard, in force from 1 July, cuts duty-free import quotas across 26 categories by an average of 47% to 18.3 million tonnes a year and lifts the out-of-quota tariff to 50% from 25%. For project buyers, softer raw materials keep finished offers anchored while the trade reset makes origin planning and compliance more valuable than ever. Certified grades and standards are on our Steel Products and Semi-Finished Steel pages, part of our Industrial Products & Commodities sector.
Copper & non-ferrous
Base metals were quietly range-bound. Copper held near US$13,480 per tonne on the LME three-month, essentially flat on the week and consolidating below the record territory tested earlier in the summer; elevated exchange stocks continue to meet a firm structural-deficit narrative rooted in electrification and AI-infrastructure demand. Aluminium eased toward US$3,140 per tonne, down about 1.9%, extending its post-peak drift, while zinc again proved resilient in a narrow band. Buyers of cathodes, billets, ingots and wire rod should keep budgeting for elevated, range-bound pricing; specifications are on our Non-Ferrous Metals catalogue.
Industrial minerals
Industrial minerals — barite, bentonite, gypsum, aggregates and cement clinker — held steady through the week, underpinned by resilient construction and infrastructure activity across the GCC and wider region. Supply remained reliable through our quarry and partner network, backed by lab certification and the logistics strength described in our Supply Chain & Logistics capability. Browse grades on the Industrial Minerals page, part of our Mining, Minerals & Natural Stone sector.
Petrochemicals
Petrochemicals delivered the week's clearest turn. Urea reversed sharply higher, trading near US$416 per tonne by 9 July — up more than 8% in a single session and about 4.8% over the month — as global supply tightness and higher logistics costs, compounded by Gulf-shipping and gas-supply risk, halted the spring correction and put a firm floor back under the market. Contract buyers who deferred cover now face a less forgiving entry point. Bitumen firmed off its lows to around CNY 3,800 per tonne — still down roughly 17.6% on the month but about 4.6% above year-ago levels, with Iran-linked export disruption remaining the key swing factor — while methanol held soft-to-steady on Asian export demand. Available products — urea, sulphur, bitumen grades, base oils and methanol — are listed on our Petrochemicals & Chemicals page.
Plastics & polymers
Polymer markets were mixed as the Middle East backdrop kept feedstock risk front of mind. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz continued to delay crude, naphtha and LPG cargoes, supporting operating-rate concerns and keeping a floor under Asian offers. PP in China held on to most of the gains built during the conflict-driven rally, outperforming PE and PVC, where post-war corrections were more pronounced. With crude and freight both firm, price direction stayed grade- and region-specific rather than uniformly soft — a market that rewards selective, well-timed replenishment over blanket buying. View resin and film options on our Plastics & Polymers page.
Freight & trade policy
Logistics stayed the standout, though the pace cooled. Drewry's World Container Index rose about 2% to roughly US$4,639 per 40ft container in the week to 9 July — around 61% higher than a year ago — following the prior week's 9% surge. Shanghai–Rotterdam climbed about 5% to near US$4,933/40ft and Shanghai–Genoa about 2% to near US$6,463, and carriers moved to defend rates with fresh FAK levels: CMA CGM set roughly US$7,000 per 40ft on Asia–Europe and US$7,900–8,500 on Asia–Med from 15 July. Peak-season demand and pre-tariff frontloading remain the drivers, with Strait-of-Hormuz security concerns adding an East–West volatility premium. Meanwhile the EU steel safeguard reshapes not just tariffs but routing and lead times for European-bound tonnage. Rising ocean rates and shifting trade rules feed straight into landed cost — exactly what our logistics and global sourcing teams plan around so delivered pricing stays predictable.
Week ahead
Watch three things. First, whether China's steel rebound has legs — a second week of firmer property transactions would confirm the turn, while record iron-ore port stocks cap any raw-material recovery. Second, urea's momentum: the sharp reversal suggests the correction is over, so buyers weighing forward fertiliser cover may want to act before the move extends. Third, freight and the Middle East — with new FAK rates and Peak Season Surcharges landing from mid-July and Hormuz risk unresolved, container rates could stay firm to higher, making early booking prudent. With steel firming, fertiliser reversing up, metals steady-to-soft and freight still climbing, a selective forward-cover approach — timing urea and steel buys to the turn, booking freight early, and staying disciplined on base-metal exposure — looks sensible. Arian Holding's global sourcing and quality-assurance teams can structure compliant, multi-grade supply across all of the above. Request a quote and our trade desk will respond with current, firm pricing for your specifications.
Sources: Trading Economics (steel, iron ore, urea, bitumen); London Metal Exchange (copper, aluminium); Mysteel and SteelOrbis (China steel); ChemOrbis (polymers); Drewry World Container Index; European Commission (EU steel safeguard). Figures are indicative market levels for the week to July 12, 2026 and are provided for general information, not as trading advice.