Summary
The non-ferrous complex enters Q3 2026 split between a genuinely bullish long-term story — structural copper deficits and electrification demand — and a softer near-term reality as new aluminium and zinc supply comes online and US tariff policy clouds the picture. Expect copper to hold a firm but choppy range, aluminium to ease gently off its highs, and zinc to drift lower. The decisive swing factor is the US Section 232 copper review, due by 30 June 2026.
This outlook covers the base metals Arian Holding trades day to day — copper cathode and wire rod, aluminium ingot and billet, and zinc — listed on our Non-Ferrous Metals catalogue within the Industrial Products & Commodities sector. Figures below are indicative market levels and published forecasts, expressed as ranges and directions rather than firm prices.
Driver 1 — Copper: structural deficit vs. near-term wobble
Copper remains the strongest structural story in the complex. Analysts point to a concentrate market that stays tight for years, with a cumulative deficit running into the millions of tonnes by the mid-2030s and a forecast shortfall of roughly 600,000 tonnes in 2026 alone. Spot smelter treatment charges turned deeply negative earlier this year — a classic signal of feedstock scarcity. Yet the near-term read is muddier: several houses see 2026 LME averages settling between the low US$11,000s and ~US$12,100/t, with Goldman Sachs framing a US$10,000–11,000/t range and warning current elevated prices may be overextended. The takeaway for buyers: the floor looks well supported, but chasing spot strength carries downside risk.
Driver 2 — US tariff policy: the 30 June swing factor
The single biggest near-term variable is the US Section 232 review of copper imports, which the Commerce Department must report on by 30 June 2026. The proposal under discussion is a phased duty — starting near 15% in January 2027 and rising toward 30% in January 2028 — far milder than the 50% blanket tariff briefly feared in 2025. The COMEX–LME spread, which spiked toward US$2,900/t at the height of last year's scare, has settled to around US$400/t, signalling the market now expects a contained outcome. Any surprise in either direction will move regional premiums sharply, so buyers with US-linked exposure should keep cover flexible.
Driver 3 — Aluminium and zinc: new supply caps the upside
Aluminium started 2026 strong, with Morgan Stanley pencilling levels near US$3,250/t as demand from solar, EVs and construction outpaced supply. But fresh capacity in Indonesia and elsewhere is expected to ease tightness through the second half, capping further gains even as China holds its 45-million-tonne production ceiling. Zinc looks softer still: forecasts cluster near US$2,900/t for 2026, with recovering exchange inventories and ongoing mine-supply growth pointing to a surplus into 2026–27. Net, the two lighter metals offer a more comfortable buying backdrop than copper over the quarter.
Scenarios for Q3 2026
Rather than a single point forecast, we frame three plausible paths. Directional ranges only — not price guidance.
| Scenario | Copper (LME) | Aluminium | Zinc | What drives it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Firm, ~US$11,000–12,000/t, choppy | Eases gently from highs | Drifts lower | Contained 15% phased copper tariff; new aluminium/zinc supply lands on schedule |
| Bull | Retests record highs above US$13,000/t | Holds near US$3,250/t | Stabilises | Mine disruption deepens the deficit; restocking and grid/AI demand accelerate |
| Bear | Slips toward US$10,000/t | Falls below US$2,900/t | Surplus weighs further | Tariff relief, weaker macro data and faster supply ramp soften sentiment |
What this means for buyers
With copper structurally tight but tactically rich, aluminium topping out and zinc easing, a differentiated approach makes sense this quarter: secure forward cover on copper-intensive programmes where the floor is firm, but stay disciplined on spot exposure ahead of the 30 June tariff decision; and use the softer aluminium and zinc backdrop to lock competitive cathode, ingot and billet supply. Arian Holding's global sourcing network and quality-assurance teams can structure compliant, certified non-ferrous supply across grades, backed by the supply-chain and logistics reach that keeps material moving through volatile windows. Browse specifications on the Non-Ferrous Metals page — and for project teams balancing metals against structural steel needs, our Steel Products catalogue sits alongside it.
Ready to fix supply against this outlook? Request a quote and our trade desk will respond with current, firm pricing for your specifications.
Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence; Goldman Sachs Research; Crux Investor; ING Think; Morgan Stanley via Hellenic Shipping News; London Metal Exchange; StoneX. Forecasts and figures are indicative and provided for general information, not as trading or investment advice.